Without giving up hope of discovering a vaccine or medication to fight COVID, we must face the reality: we are living through an unprecedented health crisis, and the economic recession is already well underway. Even once a vaccine and/or medication have been discovered and tested, it will still be necessary to produce and distribute them, and this will take time. Our governments have understood this and are managing the crisis by financially supporting citizens and businesses affected by the pandemic while preparing plans for lifting lockdown restrictions and boosting economic recovery. Their challenge is to unlock and restart the economic engine without causing a second wave of virus spread and keeping workers and businesses on the artificial income system set up by the federal government. But since the situation is complex and quite uncertain, our governments have no alternative but to set up a baseline scenario on the development of the health situation and the outlines of the economic recession to guide their action plan.