An Empirical Study of Credit Shock Transmission in a Small Open Economy
In this
paper we identify and estimate the dynamic effects of foreign (US) and national
(Canadian) credit shocks in a small open economy. We use standard credit spreads
as proxies to the external finance premium. Our first result suggests that the
US and Canadian credit spreads contain substantial forecasting power for
several measures of the Canadian real economic activity, especially during the
recent financial crisis and its aftermath. Secondly, an adverse US credit shock
generates a significant and persistent economic slowdown in Canada: the
national external finance premium rises immediately while interest rates,
credit aggregates, output, and employment indicators decline. Variance
decomposition reveals that credit shocks have a sizeable effect on real
activity measures, leading indicators, and credit spreads. On the other hand, the
unexpected shocks in domestic credit spreads are not able to generate any
signifiicant dynamic response of the real activity once we control for the US
credit market conditions.
[ - ]