06 May 2022

Study to assess the incidence of COVID-19 in Quebec - Updated with data from the week of April 28 to May 3, 2022

CIRANO has published an update of its exploratory study to estimate the incidence of COVID-19 cases in Quebec. This update integrates the data from the sixteenth week of collection, which took place from April 28 to May 3, 2022, with a sample of 3000 respondents representative of the Quebec population and compares them to other collection weeks.

It should be noted that this study is spread over several consecutive weeks in order to monitor the evolution of the situation. The study uses both a direct sampling strategy and an indirect sampling estimation based on the network scale-up (NSS) method. Details of the methods are available in the CIRANO 2022s-03 working paper.

→ Sixteenth week of collection (April 28 to May 3, 2022)

Highlights:

Significant decrease in the incidence of cases relative to the previous week for all estimators (decrease ranging from 24% to 34% depending on the estimator used). Between 18,000 and 40,500 cases per day, depending on the estimation method used. Significant decrease in case incidence for three age groups (30-39, 50-59 and 60-69 years) and stability for all other age groups (slight non-significant increase for 18-34 years).
These trends by regional groupings mask variations specific to certain regions.

This study is conducted by a team of researchers composed of David Boisclair (HEC Montréal), Roxane Borgès Da Silva (Université de Montréal and CIRANO), Vincent Boucher (Université Laval) Nathalie de Marcellis-Warin (Polytechnique Montréal and CIRANO), Pierre-Carl Michaud (HEC and CIRANO), Ingrid Peignier (CIRANO) and Alexandre Pud'Homme (Université de Montréal).