Mis-, Dis-, and Malinformation: A Game-Theoretic Analysis of Costly Truth and Equilibrium Outcomes in Digital Media Ecosystems
This article develops a Bayesian game-theoretic model to analyze the persistence and widespread prevalence of misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation within contemporary media ecosystems. Using the classic “Two Generals Problem” metaphor, we conceptualize information transmission as a strategic coordination game under conditions of uncertainty, emphasizing critical factors such as costs associated with truthful content production (??), reliability of message dissemination (?), payoffs for truthful versus misleading communication (?? , ?? ), audience composition (?), and algorithmic amplification (?). The model elucidates why actors, even those motivated by accuracy, rationally gravitate toward misinformation strategies when truthful messaging incurs significant costs and faces substantial barriers to audience penetration. Conditions under which honest signaling deteriorates are explicitly derived, and equilibrium outcomes—including both truthful and misinformation-dominated equilibria—are thoroughly analyzed. Historical and contemporary examples, such as Cold War disinformation operations, social media misinformation during the 2016 U.S. elections, COVID-19 pandemic misinformation, and deepfake technology applications, provide empirical validation. Our findings underscore the necessity of systemic interventions aimed at reducing truth-telling costs, enhancing message reliability, regulating algorithmic amplification, and restructuring incentives to facilitate transitions toward sustained truthful communication equilibria. Future research directions include empirical quantification of model parameters and exploring network effects to enhance policy relevance and effectiveness.