Le Québec économique 10 - Chapitre 9 - Les effets de la diplomation universitaire sur les finances publiques
An increase in university graduation could lessen the effects of demographic aging on public finances. By taking into account the effects of this increase on employment and income and by aiming at a catching up of the university graduation rate in Quebec with that of Ontario and the 10 best OECD countries, we use SimGen and SimFin microsimulation models to quantify the effects of this catching up on Quebec's public finances from 2021 to 2050. The results show that this measure increases the Quebec government's revenues, while having relatively little impact on expenditures. This dynamic leads to a reduction in the share of gross debt in GDP by 2 percentage points in 2050 when the university graduation rate among 35 to 44 year olds increases by 5 percentage points compared to the status quo scenario, and by 5 percentage points when this rate increases by 10 percentage points.